From this site you'll find predictions and statistics for European football matches. Predictions are made using a hEdge-model that is a statistical model for forecasting football results.
The development of the hEdge-model was motivated by the passion for football and modelling. The model is based on current knowledge of sport modelling that can be found from scientific publications and on our own experience. The model calculates probability distributions of exact scores from historical data. The hEdge takes use of previous match scores, motivation according to league table, home field advantage and league specific parameter to adjust the characteristics of each league. The last correction is made since the European leagues differ from each other considerably. (For example in a 5 year time period, 50% of games in German Bundesliga ended as home wins while in Spanish Segundo División only 40%. French Second Division and Scotish Premium League have 33% and 22% of draws, respectively. Italian Serie B has around 20% of away wins while in the Scotich leagues the value is more than 30%. )
From the score probability distribution one can calculate probabilities for the home team to win or lose or play a draw, so called 1x2 betting. Additionally, we can calculate probabilities for many other forms of betting, like the number of goals, under/over 2.5 goals, winning margin, handicap and double chance.
From the left column you will find the predicted probabilities for 1x2 betting of coming matches with highlighted average odds of 8 bookmarkers. Predictions for weekend matches will be made available by Friday evening and for midweek matches by Tuesday evening.
Although the modelling is powerful, still, always remember to trust to chance!
Good luck!
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